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CABI Book Chapter

Climate change in contrasting river basins: adaptation strategies for water, food and environment.

Book cover for Climate change in contrasting river basins: adaptation strategies for water, food and environment.

Description

This book, which contains 13 separately authored chapters, has been developed from the ADAPT Project, focusing on the development of regional adaptation strategies to climate change and climate variability for water, food and the environment in river basins across the world. Chapter 1 describes a generic methodology for river basins (called the Adaptation Methodology for River Basins, AMR). Chapte...

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Chapter 2 (Page no: 25)

Evaluating downscaling methods for preparing global circulation model (GCM) data for hydrological impact modelling.

This paper introduces four downscaling techniques and one spatial downscaling technique (kriging) used in the ADAPT project. Statistical methods 1 and 2 are simple methods that correct future projections based on annual and monthly averages, respectively. Method 3 adds to method 2 a correction across all spatial raster cells. Method 4 is a method that corrects the global circulation model (GCM) outputs using the standard deviation of the measure data. All downscaling techniques were applied to precipitation and temperature projections for the baseline period 1961-90 in seven river basins: Mekong (shared by China (Yunnan Province), Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam), Rhine (shared by Germany, the Netherlands and France), Sacramento (California, USA), Syr Darya (shared by Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan), Volta (Ghana), Walawe (Sri Lanka), and Zayandeh (Iran). The results were compared in graphs and tables using statistical test parameters. Based on the root mean square errors, methods 1 and 2 performed worst and methods 3 and 4 performed best. All four methods were able to correct the mean values of the GCM projections for temperature and precipitation to the measure data. However, after correction, the corrected extreme values from methods 1 and 2 in particular do not match the measured values as well. It is therefore recommended to use either method 3 or method 4 for downscaling.

Other chapters from this book

Chapter: 1 (Page no: 1) Adaptation for regional water management. Author(s): Aerts, J. Droogers, P.
Chapter: 3 (Page no: 49) Adaptation strategies to climate change to sustain food security. Author(s): Droogers, P. Dam, J. van Hoogeveen, J. Loeve, R.
Chapter: 4 (Page no: 75) Water for the environment: exploring adaptations to climate change in river basins. Author(s): Lasage, R. Aerts, J.
Chapter: 5 (Page no: 93) How much water will be available for irrigation in the future? The Syr Darya Basin (Central Asia). Author(s): Savoskul, O. S. Shevnina, E. V. Perziger, F. Barburin, V. Danshin, A.
Chapter: 6 (Page no: 115) Maintaining sustainable agriculture under climate change: Zayandeh Rud Basin (Iran). Author(s): Morid, S. Massah, A. R. Alikhani, M. A. Mohammadi, K.
Chapter: 7 (Page no: 133) Increasing climate variability in the Rhine Basin: business as usual? Author(s): Klein, H. Douben, K. J. Deursen, W. van Steveninck, E. de R. van
Chapter: 8 (Page no: 157) Will we produce sufficient food under climate change? Mekong Basin (South-east Asia). Author(s): Chu Thai Hoanh Guttman, H. Droogers, P. Aerts, J.
Chapter: 9 (Page no: 181) Can we maintain food production without losing hydropower? The Volta Basin (West Africa). Author(s): Andah, W. Giesen, N. van de Huber-Lee, A. Biney, C. A.
Chapter: 10 (Page no: 195) Will there be sufficient water under internal and external changes? Walawe Basin (Sri Lanka). Author(s): Jayatillake, H. M. Droogers, P.
Chapter: 11 (Page no: 215) How can we sustain agriculture and ecosystems? The Sacramento Basin (California, USA). Author(s): Huber-Lee, A. Yates, D. Purkey, D. Yu, W. Young, C. Runkle, B.
Chapter: 12 (Page no: 239) Food demand and production: a global and regional perspective. Author(s): Strzepek, K. McCluskey, A. Hoogeveen, J. Dam, J. van
Chapter: 13 (Page no: 255) Adaptation to climate change: a research agenda for the future. Author(s): Aerts, J. Droogers, P. Werners, S.

Chapter details

  • Author Affiliation
  • Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands.
  • Year of Publication
  • 2004
  • ISBN
  • 9780851998350
  • Record Number
  • 20043205146