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Leisure and tourism policy and planning.

Book cover for Leisure and tourism policy and planning.

Description

This book provides a comprehensive, multidisciplinary introduction to public policy and planning in the field of leisure and tourism. It includes theoretical perspectives and practical guidelines for the application of a range of analytical techniques. It is an updated edition of Leisure Policy and Planning (1994), now covering tourism as well as leisure and addressing such issues as citizens' rig...

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Chapter 8 (Page no: 154)

Forecasting leisure and tourism demand.

This chapter examines the ways in which the future can be considered by policy-making and planning agencies. The techniques discussed vary considerably. They include highly technical approaches designed to produce quantified demand forecasts and less technical approaches concerned with qualitative issues and the big picture. Forecasting of leisure and tourism demand is seen as one of the key inputs to the planning process. Such forecasting has its origins in the early development of leisure and tourism research in the 1960s. While interest in tourism-demand forecasts has been consistent, static populations and levelling off of some demand factors have resulted in fluctuating levels of interest in leisure forecasts in recent years. Demand for leisure and tourism can be measured in a number of ways, including participation rates, trip volume and expenditure. Changes in demand for leisure and tourism are affected by many factors, all of which are not equally susceptible to prediction. Among the change factors that are reviewed in this chapter are: leisure and work time; demographic change; income levels; transport; technological change; the activities of producers; the environment; tastes and life styles; attitudes and values; the media; and post-industrialism, postmodernism and globalization. A range of forecasting techniques are reviewed in the chapter, namely: informed speculation; asking the public; asking the experts - the Delphi technique; scenario writing; time-series analysis; spatial models; cross-sectional analysis; comparative analysis; and composite methods. In tourism forecasting, the time-series method has been most common, because of the ready availability of time-series data. In leisure forecasting, cross-sectional methods have been the most common but are now being replaced by composite methods, which draw on a number of techniques and data sources.

Other chapters from this book

Chapter: 1 (Page no: 1) Introduction. Author(s): Veal, A. J.
Chapter: 2 (Page no: 11) Leisure and tourism: rights, needs and citizenship. Author(s): Veal, A. J.
Chapter: 3 (Page no: 35) Political ideologies and the role of the state. Author(s): Veal, A. J.
Chapter: 4 (Page no: 53) The market versus the state. Author(s): Veal, A. J.
Chapter: 5 (Page no: 73) Public policy-making. Author(s): Veal, A. J.
Chapter: 6 (Page no: 88) Leisure and tourism plans and planning. Author(s): Veal, A. J.
Chapter: 7 (Page no: 116) Planning methods. Author(s): Veal, A. J.
Chapter: 9 (Page no: 185) Economic evaluation techniques. Author(s): Veal, A. J.
Chapter: 10 (Page no: 211) Performance evaluation. Author(s): Veal, A. J.
Chapter: 11 (Page no: 238) Policy and planning for particular sectors and groups. Author(s): Veal, A. J.

Chapter details